Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
