Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
